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from the issue of November 9, 2006
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Labor force grows despite population declines
It's no secret that most of Nebraska's rural counties have been losing population in recent decades, but a recent study of census data by Randy Cantrell, extension professor with the University of Nebraska Rural Initiative, shows that more than half those counties actually saw an aggregate increase in the size of their labor force in recent years.
The most recent population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau indicate that 70 of the state's 93 counties lost population between 2000 and 2005, a group that includes 52 of the 53 counties that lost population from 1990 to 2000. Of the state's 43 most-rural counties (those with no community larger than 2,500), 42 are estimated to have lost population since the 2000 census.
Writing in the October issue of Business in Nebraska, the two-times yearly publication of the UNL's Bureau of Business Research, Cantrell reported that 31 of the 53 counties that lost population between 1990 and 2000 saw actual increases in the size of their labor force.
In addition, he said, 43 of those counties saw an increase in their labor force participation rate (the proportion over the age of 16 years that was either employed or unemployed and looking for work), while 45 of the counties experienced an increase in the proportion of the labor force with full-time work (defined as working an average of 35 or more hours per week for at least 50 weeks of the year preceding the census).
"As is often the case with things statistical, these aggregate data tell a story that is incomplete," Cantrell wrote. "Depopulation is certainly occurring, but not in the uniform way that one might imagine. In order to fully understand the likely impact of population change, one must ask not only how many people are involved, but who those people are. The answers sometimes can be counter intuitive and surprising, as is the case of changes in Nebraska's non-metropolitan labor force."
The explanation for these numbers, he said, can be found in the four components of population change - birth, death, in-migration and out-migration. His analysis of census data for the 71 most-rural Nebraska counties from 1990 to 2000 showed a nearly 50 percent loss of population in the 20- to 24-year age group accompanied by substantial population losses among persons age 70 and over (mostly due to death).
The surprise, he said, was finding substantial in-migration in the 30-49 age group and an associated in-migration of school-age children (10-14) who accompanied working age parents.
"For these counties, the net result of demographic change was a 1.5 percent decline in the total population and a 7.7 increase in the economically important group age 30 to 54 years," Cantrell wrote. "Coupled with an increase in labor force participation, this resulted in a labor force growth of 6.6 percent."
Cantrell cautioned that while those figures are encouraging, the labor force growth rate in the 71 most-rural counties was still less than half that for the state as a whole (13.6 percent).
"Still, it appears from these data that labor force growth in rural portions of Nebraska is possible even in the face of continuing population decline," he wrote. "Whether or not we can expect to see a continuation of in-migration by persons of working age is a question of critical economic importance."
GO TO: ISSUE OF NOVEMBER 9
NEWS HEADLINES FOR NOVEMBER 9
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Oakley guides UNL's first Asian American lit class
Sheldon seminar aims to integrate art, coursework
'Ethanol's Lost History' presented Nov. 16
Labor force grows despite population declines
National honors council finds home at UNL
Students volunteer for ABC
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